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劉中民美國遭遇中東之殤
2020-01-06 22:38   来源:  www.ndigbotvnews.com   评论:0 点击:

劉中民美國遭遇中東之殤在2010年代的最后一天——2019年12月31日,美國駐伊拉克大使館遭到伊拉克什葉派民兵

在2010年代的最后一天——2019年12月31日,美國駐伊拉克大使館遭到伊拉克什葉派民兵組織的沖擊。事實上,最近一個月來,美國與伊拉克什葉派武裝沖突不斷。由于美國駐伊拉克基爾庫克等地的軍事基地接連遭到襲擊,美國于12月29日對伊拉克什葉派民兵組織“真主黨旅”進行襲擊,導致后者數十人死亡,而12月31日發生的美國大使館遇襲事件無疑是什葉派民兵的報復。當然,華盛頓自然把伊拉克什葉派民兵視為伊朗支持的力量,并把矛頭指向伊朗,使得該事件與美國和伊朗的地區博弈不可分割地聯系在了一起。

On the last day of the 2010' s – December 31,2019– the US embassy in Iraq was hit by Iraqi Shia militias. Indeed, the last month has seen an ongoing armed conflict between the US and Iraq ' s Shia. As a result of successive attacks on United States military bases, including in Kirkuk, Iraq, the United States carried out an attack on 29 December against the Iraqi Shiite militia, the "Hizbollah Brigade ", resulting in the death of dozens of the latter, and the attack on the United States Embassy on 31 December was undoubtedly a reprisal by the Shiite militia. Of course, Washington naturally views Iraqi Shi ' a militias as Iranian-backed forces and targets Iran, making the incident inextricably linked to the regional game between the US and Iran.

盡管美國在中東的遇襲屢見不鮮,但“伊拉克”這個與美國結下不解之緣的字眼,令包括美國在內的全世界,在年代交替之際拷問美國的中東政策以及未來美國在中東的命運。

In spite of the u.s. attacks in the middle east, the word \"iraq \", a close link to the u.s., has made the world, including the u.s., question u.s. policy and future u.s. fate in the middle east at a time of alternation.

相對于歐洲列強,美國在中東是一個后來者。二戰前,美國與中東的來往主要是商業和文化關系。二戰后,美國全面取代歐洲在中東的地位,并伴隨冷戰的展開與蘇聯在中東展開了全面爭奪。盡管美國在阿以沖突中對以色列的偏袒遭到阿拉伯國家的反感,但由于當時中東的陣營對抗,以及美國在中東尚無大規模直接的軍事介入,美國似乎也并非中東國家十分仇視的對象,它通過以色列、土耳其、沙特、伊朗(1979年以前)等地區盟友抗衡蘇聯,維護自身的利益。

Compared to the European powers, the United States is a latecomer in the Middle East. Before World War II, America's dealings with the Middle East were mainly business and cultural relations. After World War II, the United States completely replaced Europe's position in the Middle East, and with the launch of the Cold War and the Soviet Union in the Middle East launched a comprehensive struggle. Although the US's partiality to Israel in the Arab-Israeli conflict was antithetical to the Arab States, the US did not appear to be the object of much hostility in the Middle East because of the camp's confrontation in the Middle East and the lack of large-scale direct military intervention in the Middle East, and it defended itself against the Soviet Union through regional allies such as Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran (before 1979).

美國在中東的麻煩源于1979年的伊朗伊斯蘭革命和蘇聯入侵阿富汗戰爭。伊朗從親美走向反美,尤其是憤怒的民眾占領美國大使館并扣押美國人質事件,令美國在中東名譽掃地,美國與伊朗的對抗由此延續至今,這也是美國在隨后爆發的兩伊戰爭選擇支持薩達姆政權的原因所在,當然這也埋下了伊拉克地區霸權膨脹,進而引發1990年海灣危機、致使美國發動海灣戰爭,乃至也埋下了2003年美國再度發動伊拉克戰爭的孽緣。而同在1979年爆發的蘇聯入侵阿富汗戰爭中,美國基于反蘇需要支持“基地”等“圣戰”組織,而在1991年海灣戰爭后長期駐軍沙特,使美國成為“基地”組織仇視的對象。

America's troubles in the Middle East stem from Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Iran has moved from pro-Americanism to anti-Americanism, especially as angry citizens have captured the US embassy and seized American hostages, discrediting the US in the Middle East, and the US confrontation with Iran has continued to this day, which is why the US chose to support Saddam Hussein's regime in the ensuing Iran-Iraq war, and of course, which has buried Iraq's expansion of regional hegemony, triggered the 1990 Gulf crisis, led to the US Gulf war and even buried the fate of the 2003 US war on Iraq. In the same Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that broke out in 1979, the United States based itself on the need for anti-Soviet support for \"jihadists\" such as al-Qaeda, and its long-standing presence in Saudi Arabia after the 1991 Gulf War made the United States an object of \"al-Qaeda\" hostility.

20世紀90年代是美國在中東最為輝煌的十年,克林頓“西促和談,東遏兩伊”的戰略使中東維持了基本的平衡,最終卻無果而終。巴以和平逆轉為持久、且時斷時續的沖突,伊朗和伊拉克也并未臣服,而美國與伊斯蘭極端力量的仇恨卻在不斷累積和爆發,美國在中東的目標多次遭襲。

In the 1990s, when the United States was the most brilliant decade in the Middle East, Clinton's strategy of \"Westly promoting peace talks, East Repressing the two Irans \"had left the Middle East in a fundamental equilibrium that ultimately failed. While palestinian-israeli-palestinian peace has reversed into a protracted and time-lapse conflict, iranians and iraq have not succumbed, american-islamic extremism has accumulated and flared, and american targets in the middle east have been repeatedly attacked.

進入新世紀后,導致美國發生戰略錯亂的“9·11”事件爆發,結果是美國錯誤發動阿富汗戰爭和伊拉克戰爭。阿富汗戰爭持續至今,美國對不斷坐大的塔利班束手無策;2011年,伴隨奧巴馬為抽身中東撤軍伊拉克,伊拉克戰爭“被結束”。也正是在2011年,“阿拉伯之春”席卷中東,急于從中東抽身的美國進退失據,其內在矛盾是美國在中東的戰略收縮和成本減少,使其根本無力主導劇烈變動的中東地區事務。從某種程度上說,“伊斯蘭國”的滋生、伊朗的崛起、敘利亞危機的久拖不決,都是這種困境的產物,而以民主改造為核心的“大中東計劃”早已淹沒在阿拉伯大漠之中。

及至特朗普主政,美國中東戰略在本質上繼續收縮,剿滅“伊斯蘭國”、遏制伊朗成為特朗普的主要目標,但其主要做法是減少投入,利用地區盟友沖鋒在前,并從中撈取軍火收益,服務于“美國優先”的目標。當前,遏制伊朗是美國中東政策的主線,但以避免發動戰爭為底線的美國,盡管通過政治施壓和經濟制裁重創伊朗,卻無法顛覆伊朗政權。相反,“阿拉伯之春”以來,伊朗對敘利亞、黎巴嫩、伊拉克、也門什葉派力量的影響不斷增強,使伊朗打擊美國及其盟友的能力已經從波斯灣擴展至地中海,當前美國在伊拉克的遭遇就是這種邏輯的體


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